A guest contribution by public affairs consultancy IvCB in The Hague.
Photo credits: Ministerie van Financiën
Budget Day (Prinsjesdag) 2026: What Cabinet Jetten’s first Budget is likely to mean for Swedish-Dutch Companies
On the third Tuesday of September — this year 15 September 2026 – the King delivers the Speech from the Throne, and the Minister of Finance submits the Budget Memorandum and the Tax Plan. Measures typically take effect on January first, leaving businesses just over three months to prepare.
The political setting: a minority cabinet with a majority problem
This is the first Prinsjesdag for Cabinet Jetten, sworn in on 23 February 2026 after the October 2025 elections in which D66 became the largest party. The coalition of D66, VVD and CDA holds 66 of 150 seats — the first genuine minority cabinet since 1945. The consequence for business is straightforward: what is presented on 15 September is not yet law. Every budget bill needs support from at least one opposition party in the House, and then again in the Senate. Reporting in mid-August indicated the 2027 package was still not politically settled, and the cabinet has even filed a criminal complaint over the leaking of draft budget documents.
The coalition agreement of 30 January 2026 does give a clear steer. It anchors innovation policy in a European frame drawing on the Draghi and Wennink reports, and creates two new institutions: a National Investment Institution (NII) with around €3–5 billion for projects that cannot attract private capital alone; and a National Agency for Disruptive Innovation (NADI), with €500 million initially reserved, and political discussion about potentially doubling this. These institutions are modelled on the US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) – meaning small teams with real authority to place high risk bets on a defined mission, fund several competing technical routes at once, and cut off what is not working, rather than spreading grants thinly across applicants. The NII houses a successor to the National Growth Fund, which the previous cabinet discontinued.
The coalition government also picked four priority technology domains: Digitalisation and AI, Security and Resilience, Energy and Climate Technology, and Life Sciences and Biotechnology. Three of these – Digitalisation and AI, Security and Resilience, and Life Sciences and Biotechnology – map directly onto where Swedish-Dutch industrial and research cooperation is strongest.
Two points affect every employer. First, the expat scheme. From 1 January 2027 the untaxed allowance drops from 30% to 27%, and the minimum salary an employee must earn to qualify at all rises to €50,436 a year (€38,388 for those under 30 with a master’s degree). People already using the scheme before 2024 keep their existing terms. None of this is new or up for negotiation. It was passed into law previously, so it takes effect regardless of what happens to this budget. What is new is political: the Cabinet says it will go no further, and the coalition agreement lists the expat scheme, innovation box, participation exemption and the WBSO among the arrangements it intends to preserve. After several years of erosion, 27% is a resting point rather than a way station.
The second is the “freedom contribution” (vrijheidsbijdrage), the coalition’s mechanism for funding a €19 billion increase in defence spending to meet the NATO norm. Despite the name there is no new tax. Households contribute through only partial indexation of income tax brackets in 2027 and 2028, and employers through a higher premium for the disability fund (Aof). Together, it is designed to raise around €5.1 billion structurally from 2028, comprising roughly €3.4 billion from citizens and €1.7 billion from companies. For employers the effect is twofold: a direct increase in wage costs through the Aof premium, while employees see their net pay squeezed by frozen tax brackets at the very time wage negotiations begin.
Life Sciences and Health
This part is where the least is known and the most at stake. Health is not just a spending area for this Cabinet, it is part of how this government wants to be seen. The coalition agreement pushes healthcare towards prevention and wellbeing, stating to aim for “the healthiest generation ever”, while managing what citizens pay out of pocket. The budget resolves part of several outstanding issues: the €60 increase in the compulsory deductible is postponed to 2028 – a €1 billion cost in 2027 – and the envelope for the healthcare costs of the chronically ill moves to 2028. Starting in 2028, the deductible will also be tranched at a maximum of €150 per treatment episode in medical specialist care, with 2027 used for its implementation. The deductible rises to €400 in 2027, in line with inflation as been stated by the Cabinet.
Preventive healthcare is where the rhetoric turns into actual spending. The clearest example is shingles: in 2027, the Netherlands starts vaccinating citizens aged 60 and over, funded at €47 million per year for 2027–2029 and rising to €53 million from 2030, with a catch-up campaign for 61- to 69-year-olds reserved for 2028–2031. The cohort was set at 60 on advice from the RIVM because, at that age, the health gain per euro is greatest. This illustrates how preventive healthcare decisions in this Cabinet will be made. A catch-up campaign for vaccination and screening uptake will also expand in 2027 and is intended to cover every area with lagging vaccination rates by 2028.
The industrial side is already firm. On 6 July 2026, the Cabinet committed €102.5 million to the Dutch MedTech sector through to 2036, a response to the MedTech Growth Plan in the Wennink report. The funding was structured to require private parties to match the public money at least one-for-one, with Philips announcing €50 million on day one. The Ministries of Health, Welfare & Sports, and Economic Affairs & Climate Policy are jointly responsible, working towards a single MedTech ecosystem spanning start-ups, SMEs, knowledge institutions and large corporates. The budget has a target and a funding line attached. The stated ambition includes the Netherlands being the strongest MedTech ecosystem in Europe by 2035 and €5 million per year is set aside from 2028 through 2036 to execute the joint VWS–EZK policy agenda. The investment priorities set out in the budget are the next generation of AI and robotics for image-guided therapy, and the validation and scaling of technology for “the hospital of the future”.
The government has defined its role around creating the conditions for innovation rather than providing direct subsidies, focusing on regulation, the adoption of new technologies in healthcare, and data infrastructure. For Swedish-Dutch companies it is a recognisable proposition. Swedish medtech and diagnostics firms face the same drivers here – workforce scarcity, ageing, pressure to move care out of hospitals – and the programme is built to bring in partners beyond the incumbents. The numbers behind that are stark. The budget projects a shortage of almost 301,000 people in health and care by 2035, and an increase in care spending from around 10% of GDP in 2025 to roughly 17% by 2060. Anything that credibly saves staff time is pushing with the current, not against it.
The data leg now has dates attached. A Health Data Authority (Gezondheidsdata Autoriteit) is to be designated by law in 2027 and must be operational by 26 March 2029. It will oversee both primary and secondary use of digital health data and regulating the market for electronic health record systems. Implementing legislation for the European Health Data Space is being drafted in 2027, alongside decisions on which components of the national health information system can be made mandatory. Running in parallel, the AI Act’s high-risk obligations will apply from 2 August 2027, landing on device and diagnostic software just as the revision of the Medical Device Regulation is being negotiated. 2027 is the most important year for companies reliant on Dutch care data, or developing CE-marked products with AI functionality, as the regulatory landscape will then be formed and stakeholder influence will matter most.
Alongside this data leg runs a second, more industrial track: security of supply. Here, the framing has shifted from shortage management to resilience. VWS makes €179.7 million available for medical-product subsidies in 2027, including €86.5 million for resilience stocks and stand-by production capacity, and puts pandemic preparedness on a structural footing at €162 million per year. To reduce Europe’s reliance on external suppliers, the cabinet is backing measures such as strategic manufacturing projects, collective procurement, and a review of whether the GVS and Wgp (Medicine Prices Act) can better accommodate shifts in the global geopolitical landscape. The most notable development is the latter. For the first time in years, Dutch medicines pricing policy appears open to change, with the argument centred on supply security rather than industry support.
Of the three tracks, regulation matters most. In the Dutch market, reimbursement decisions tend to be a greater determinant of success than fundraising, and the path to reimbursement is becoming more challenging. The budget provides the National Health Care Institute (Zorginstituut) with a firmer role in testing whether care belongs in the basic package – not only at introduction but in practice afterwards – and instructs it to place greater emphasis on cost-effectiveness and the availability of staff. Preference will be given to equivalent alternatives that either require less workforce capacity or demonstrate superior cost-effectiveness. The minister will now decide on package-worthiness for all intramural medicines, as is already the case for extramurals, closing a route that previously ran through the hospital setting. Health insurers are to be strengthened as purchasers of appropriate care through a bill drafted in 2026 and tabled in 2027, and the cabinet intends to end reimbursement of non-contracted care. For anyone bringing a therapy, device or diagnostic to the Dutch market, the practical consequence is that the health, economic and workforce impact case now has to be built before launch, not after, and that the purchasing counterparty matters more than it did.
Life Sciences and Biotechnology is also one of the four NII/NADI domains, and one of the four domains of the cabinet’s new Talent Strategy – so it shapes skills policy as well as capital. The budget fills in part of the picture. The NII is capitalised at €3.3 billion cumulatively over 2026–2035. NADI is confirmed at a cumulative €500 million, now scored as deficit relevant. The National Growth Fund is not simply wound up: €8.5 billion remains on the books over the same period, released project money is being recycled into a new application round, and the Fund already carries health assets – PharmaNL receives €22.4 million in 2027.
Clean Industry and Energy
Here the directions are clear, well documented, and a genuine break with the previous cabinet. On 10 April 2026 Minister of Climate and Green Growth Van Veldhoven-van der Meer sent Parliament a broad package for industrial decarbonisation. The headline is the definitive abolition of the national CO₂ levy for industry — announced under Rutte IV, suspended by Cabinet Schoof, now scrapped outright. For energy-intensive Swedish-Dutch operations, that removes a national cost layer on top of EU ETS.
The stated reason is blunter than these documents usually are: the preconditions for decarbonisation are not in place. Grid congestion is planned to be eased by earlier announced crisis measures and pushes lead times for electrification projects into the early 2030s, nitrogen permitting obstructs consents, and CCS depends on the Aramis storage project. Companies were being charged for emissions they had no practical route to avoid. Starting in 2027, an additional maximum of €1.3 billion will be reserved for the ramp-up guarantee of the transport segment of the Aramis CCS value chain.
What replaces the levy is a cost-reduction package. For a more level European playing field on electricity costs, the Cabinet has reserved funds through to 2035, rising to €1 billion per year from 2029 — justified by projections of grid tariffs roughly doubling by 2040. The indirect cost compensation scheme (IKC-ETS) has been extended by 22 additional (sub)sectors, aimed at those hit hardest, such as chemicals. The 2026 IKC round payments will be split between 2026 and early 2027. Companies that previously qualified for IKC in 2024 and/or 2025 will be prioritized by RVO and paid partly in 2026; the remaining companies will be paid at the start of 2027.
Six new SDE++ rounds worth €8 billion are reserved from 2027, with further offshore wind growth via Contracts for Difference, and reducing grid congestion is described as a top priority. The bespoke arrangements with the largest emitters continue, but the logic has changed: the focus shifts from individual companies to clusters and geographic areas. The commitment to four new nuclear power stations stands.
On tax, the energy investment allowance (EIA) rises from 40% to 45.5% on 1 January 2027. The petrol excise reduction is extended one more year at €0.84 per litre, expiring on 1 January 2028 — so the cost increase for logistics is deferred, not cancelled. Net metering for solar ends in 2027.
What this means for Swedish-Dutch companies is that the Netherlands has decided to compete on industrial energy costs instead of on how strictly it prices carbon. This approach/shift favours energy-intensive production and suppliers of electrification, grid, hydrogen or heat technology into Dutch clusters — where the cluster-based approach creates a defined set of counterparties to engage. However, it is less favourable for business models that depended on a rising national carbon price.
Tech
Technology is one of the clearest winners in Cabinet Jetten’s first Budget. The government’s central economic argument is that the Netherlands cannot maintain its prosperity through public spending alone. Future growth must come from higher productivity, stronger private investment and technological innovation. As a result, digitalisation, artificial intelligence, cybersecurity and deep-tech innovation have moved from being sectoral policy topics to becoming core elements of Dutch economic policy.
The headline is investment. Almost €4 billion is being directed towards innovation funds and research infrastructure. The government is restarting the National Growth Fund, establishing a new National Investment Institution (NII) with €3.3 billion in capital and creating the National Agency for Disruptive Innovation (NADI), which will receive €500 million to support breakthrough technologies. In addition, funding is being made available for a national supercomputer, an Einstein Telescope R&D centre and increased support for the commercialisation of academic research. The goal is explicit: to increase Dutch productivity in the Netherlands and avoid falling behind the leading technology economies.
For Swedish-Dutch companies, the most immediate opportunities are concentrated in four technology domains identified by the government as: AI & Digitalisation; Cybersecurity & Resilience; Energy Technology, and Life Sciences & Biotechnology. These sectors will receive priority attention in innovation policy, talent programmes and future public investment decisions. Companies operating in these areas could expect increased access to public financing instruments, pilot projects and public-private innovation partnerships.
Artificial intelligence is emerging as a particular priority. The government sees AI as essential to tackling labour shortages, improving public services and strengthening Dutch competitiveness. While much of the debate in recent years focused on AI regulation, the emphasis is now shifting towards deployment and adoption. New financing vehicles, research infrastructure and talent programmes are intended to accelerate the commercial application of AI throughout the economy. For companies active in software, automation, industrial digitalisation and AI-enabled services, this creates opportunities both in the public sector and among Dutch corporates seeking productivity gains.
Cybersecurity is becoming equally important. The Speech from the Throne and the Budget Memorandum both frame cyber resilience as a national security issue. Additional measures are expected to strengthen the ability of authorities to protect businesses and citizens against cyberattacks, while new investments are being directed towards cyber resilience in universities, research institutes and critical infrastructure. This creates clear opportunities for providers of cybersecurity solutions, digital identity technologies, secure communications and infrastructure protection services.
A third theme is digital sovereignty. Policymakers increasingly view Europe’s dependence on non-European cloud providers, digital platforms and advanced technologies as both an economic and strategic vulnerability. The government therefore intends to invest in secure data exchange, digital identity solutions, interoperable digital services and more autonomous cloud infrastructure. While the Netherlands remains committed to open markets and international trade, public procurement and innovation policy are increasingly influenced by resilience and strategic autonomy considerations. Companies that can contribute to European digital capabilities or trusted digital infrastructure are likely to find a receptive policy environment.
Perhaps most importantly, the government’s approach is not focused on subsidies alone. It wants to mobilise significantly more private capital and private-sector innovation. The practical implication for businesses is that the opportunities created by these programmes will depend heavily on early engagement. The institutions are being established, funding is being reserved and priorities are being defined, but many implementation choices still need to be made. For Swedish-Dutch companies active in AI, software, cybersecurity, digital infrastructure, cloud services and advanced technologies, 2027 is therefore likely to be a year in which engagement with Dutch policymakers and innovation ecosystems matters more than usual.
What lies ahead for Swedish-Dutch businesses?
- In 2025 a caretaker cabinet with 32 seats and no mandate produced a deliberately policy‑light budget while everyone waited for the election. This year there is a mandate, a coalition agreement and a clear industrial‑policy direction — but still no majority. The uncertainty has moved from “what will they want to do” to “what will they be able to get through”.
- Much remains genuinely open: the macroeconomic projections for 2027, the net purchasing power effect per income group, any corporate income tax change, the Box 3 reform to actual returns, and the comparability of budget chapters after the February departmental reorganisation. The outlines that can be relied on:
- Talent costs have stabilised rather than worsened. The expat scheme lands at 27% and the cabinet says it will go no further, which finally allows multi-year HR planning.
- Industrial energy policy has swung towards competitiveness: the national CO₂ levy is gone, electricity cost support rises to €1 billion a year from 2029, and IKC ETS covers 22 additional sub sectors.
- Health technology is an active, funded priority with an explicit invitation to partners and government focused on regulation, care implementation and data infrastructure.
- Innovation financing is being rebuilt rather than cut, but the new institutions have yet to publish how they will actually choose what to fund, which is why getting in early is worth more than usual.
- Cost increases are deferred rather than avoided. Petrol excise normalises in 2028, net metering ends in 2027, and limited bracket indexation raises the effective burden.
Three moments will be decisive: 15 September itself – above all the detail on the electricity-cost envelope, the capitalisation of NII and NADI, and the healthcare compensation package; the General Political Debate on 16 and 17 September, where the opposition parties will signal their price; and the December votes on the Tax Plan 2027, where a minority cabinet either delivers or trades.
In 2025, companies had to stay agile due to uncertainty over which political parties would form the government. In 2026, they must stay agile as the government sets out its ambitions but cannot guarantee delivery. Swedish-Dutch companies that engage policymakers early on – particularly on the industrial energy package and the new innovation institutions, where implementation detail is still being drafted – will have more influence now than at any point after this December.
