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An update on the Dutch political situation by Swedish Chamber Member IvCB Publilc Affairs & Stakeholdermanagement. The Dutch cabinet, led by Prime Minister Schoof, formally resigned on June 3^rd following Geert Wilders’ decision to withdraw the PVV (Party for Freedom) from the ruling coalition. This collapse places the Netherlands under a caretaker (demissionary) government, now operating without PVV ministers. The rupture is rooted in domestic politics: escalating tensions over immigration and asylum policy proved unsustainable within the fragile four-party coalition. Although there is no clear evidence that Wilders was influenced by foreign actors, the volatile pre-election climate is likely to attract efforts by far-right groups, potentially including those connected to Russia or the American alt-right, to exert influence. With key ministerial posts now vacant and the legislative calendar shifting, this transition opens both risks and opportunities for strategic public affairs engagement.   Key developments

• On 3 June, the four-party PVV–VVD–NSC–BBB coalition government collapsed. Internal tensions over immigration and asylum policy reached a breaking point.
• Wilders may also be capitalising on declining poll numbers for coalition partners BBB and NSC, seeking to consolidate right-wing voter support ahead of new elections.
• PM Schoof’s cabinet resigned only 11 months after it was formed.
• 9 PVV (under-)ministers have stepped down; their responsibilities will be temporarily handed over to the remaining (under-)ministers.
• Remaining ministers continue in a limited caretaker capacity.
• The House of Representatives will determine which pending policy items are deemed “controversial”—and thus suspended until a new coalition government is formed.
• No new political decisions will be taken unless explicitly endorsed by parliament.
• Reactions across the political spectrum have been mixed. Former coalition partners expressed frustration over the collapse, with some viewing the move as politically opportunistic. Opposition parties have signalled cautious optimism, hoping for a shift in political direction, but are wary of voter fatigue and instability.
• On 4 June, the Dutch Electoral Council issued formal advice to the (now demissionary) Minister of the Interior, recommending Wednesday, 29 October as the earliest feasible date for national elections. The recommendation accounts for candidate registration timelines, municipal preparations, and school holidays. Earlier dates were ruled out due to scheduling conflicts.

Sector implications While the caretaker government manages day-to-day affairs, regulated sectors face delays and uncertainty:

• Technology: Digitalisation and AI investment programmes are unlikely to advance.
• Energy & Climate: Progress on grid congestion, energy reform, and national climate goals will slow.
• Agriculture: Ongoing debates around nitrogen and transition financing remain unresolved.
• Healthcare & Infrastructure: Ministerial gaps freeze strategic decision-making, creating operational and investment uncertainty.

Timeline and outlook Weeks 23-35 (June – August)

• Elections are not legally possible. Political parties begin drafting manifestos behind the scenes.

Week 27 (4 July)

• Parliament recess starts (until 1 Sept.)
• Formal political activity slows; party manifesto writing intensifies.

Weeks 33-35 (Mid-late August)

• Royal decree dissolving Parliament expected. By Dutch election law, this triggers an 83-98 day election countdown.

Weeks 36-39 (Sept.)

• Political parties hold congresses and adopt final manifestos.
• Unfit for elections due to registration timelines and municipal preparations.

Week 40-43 (Oct.)

• School holidays limit the feasibility of elections earlier in the month.
• Most likely national election date: 29 October.

Strategic perspective: What does this mean for you While policy progress slows, the pre-election phase offers a strategic opening for companies to influence long-term agendas. Parties are repositioning—and actively listening.   Now is the time to:

• Secure visibility in political party manifestos and pre-election platforms;
• Reassess stakeholder maps and anticipate shifts in political leadership.
• Build or reinforce coalitions of support across sectoral and regional lines;
• Prepare a first-mover strategy for post-election engagement.

  How IvCB supports you Public affairs and stakeholder management office IvCB, based in The Hague, is closely monitoring political developments and proactively guiding clients and partners through the evolving political landscape. IvCB will:

• Keep you updated on parliamentary decisions and relevant debates;
• Advise on messaging and outreach toward manifesto teams and party influencers;
• Develop tailored positioning strategies for both caretaker governance and new coalition scenarios.
• Ensure your organisation remains visible, future-proof, and politically well-positioned.

  Act now to stay ahead Political transitions come with risk, but also opportunity. Influence doesn’t pause when policy does. By acting early and strategically, your organisation can shape the agenda that follows.    

Yesterday, the trainees and intern of the Swedish Chamber of Commerce had the pleasure of visiting our esteemed Team Sweden partners in The Hague – Business Sweden and the Embassy of Sweden in the Netherlands. This insightful visit offered a closer look at how our organisations collaborate to strengthen Swedish–Dutch business relations. The trainees had the opportunity to sit down with representatives from both entities, gaining valuable insights into their important work in trade promotion, diplomacy, and cross-border collaboration. We are sincerely grateful to Tomas Korseman and his inspiring team at Business Sweden, as well as the Embassy of Sweden, for their warm welcome and generous time. It was a day filled with thoughtful conversations, meaningful exchanges, and strengthened connections.