March 17, 2026, Global Macro Outlook powered by Handelsbanken

Date: March 17, 2026
Time: 11.00 – 12.00
Venue: Digital event

A dear tradition returned as Handelsbanken’s Head of Research and Chief Economist Christina Nyman shared their recent Global Macro Outlook with some 300 interested members and customers of Handelsbanken Netherlands.

Hosted by Roland van Pooij, CEO of Handelsbanken Netherlands, and moderated by Etienne te Brake, CMO/CCO, this event sketched the bank’s economic forecasts and strategic insights for 2026. Key topics included global macroeconomic trends, regional economic developments (U.S., China, Euro area, and emerging markets), the impact of geopolitical risks such as the Middle East conflict and tariffs, and financial market expectations. The discussion also covered sector-specific impacts, central bank policies, and long-term economic risks like public debt and AI adoption.

Key take aways:

• The global macro outlook for 2026 suggests improving sentiment but significant uncertainties due to geopolitical risks, including developments in the Middle East.
• Global growth has averaged 3.3% since 1980, with post-pandemic growth aligning with historical averages after an initial strong rebound.

“From Resilience to more Stability – and then the tariffs came”

• The U.S. economy shows resilience with strong consumption and a robust labor market, though growth is slowing from high levels due to inflation and tariffs.
• China’s economy faces challenges from the property market crisis and household confidence issues, remaining export and investment-led.
• The Euro area’s growth is constrained by slow trend growth, low productivity, and public debt concerns, particularly in France.
• Emerging markets are impacted by Middle East developments, with some Asian economies suffering from energy shortages and shifting trade patterns.
• Tariffs and trade wars have altered global trade dynamics, with recent U.S. tariff increases posing risks to economic resilience.

“AI is not the driver of global growth, but the AI-boom masked the trade war blow”

• Two scenarios for the Middle East conflict: a mild scenario with normalised oil prices and a severe scenario with sustained high oil prices and increasing recession risks.
• Rising oil prices increase the risk for global recession. Very important the Straight of Hormuz will open soon.
• Financial markets expect the ECB to hike interest rates, with nearly two hikes anticipated by year-end, though scepticism exists given current economic conditions.

What you can do according to Christina Nyman:

• Monitor Global Economic Indicators
  • Continue tracking global economic indicators such as consumer confidence, PMI composite, and the global economic condition indicator to assess economic stability and volatility.
• Assess Impact of Tariffs and Trade Policies
  • Evaluate the impact of recent U.S. tariff increases and evolving trade patterns on global trade and economic resilience.
• Prepare for ECB Interest Rate Decisions
  • Analyse financial market expectations for ECB interest rate hikes and prepare for potential scenarios, including a severe oil price shock.
• Analyse Sector-Specific Impacts of Oil Prices
  • Assess the impact of elevated oil prices on oil-dependent sectors such as the chemical industry and manufacturing, and monitor gas supply and demand to prevent an energy crisis.
• Forecast Federal Reserve and ECB Policies
  • Forecast Federal Reserve rate cuts (expected in September and once more next year) and ECB policy decisions, considering high global public debt and rising government bond yields.
• Evaluate AI Adoption and Productivity Gains
  • Study the potential productivity gains from AI adoption and address obstacles such as skills shortages, ethical issues, and legal challenges to widespread implementation.